yellowstone caldera eruption prediction

Yellowstone volcano is estimated to have last erupted 640,000, 1.2 million and 2.1 million-years-ago. Tracking changes in Yellowstone's restless volcanic system, The Quaternary and Pliocene Yellowstone Plateau volcanic field of Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana. ", To put that into perspective, the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo in the Philippines, arguably the most powerful volcanic eruption in living memory, was rated a 6 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, making it, according to the Natural History Museum, "around 100 times smaller than the benchmark for a supervolcano.". Scientists are monitoring the volcano 24 hours a day, measuring everything from geyser eruptions, hot spring temperaturesand ground uplift. How do scientists know whats going on beneath the ground at Yellowstone? The documentary found there would be very little in the way of lava flows from a volcano eruption at Yellowstone. The Yellowstone supervolcano sits above a hotspotan area of anomalously high temperaturesin the Earth's mantle that causes melting of the material in the region. Volcano and earthquake monitoring plan for the Yellowstone Caldera system, 20222032, 2018 update to the U.S. Geological Survey national volcanic threat assessment, U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards ProgramAssess, forecast, prepare, engage. Yellowstone National Park sits atop a giant supervolcano that is considered to be active, albeit currently dormant. Hydrothermal explosions are very small; they occur in Yellowstone National Park every few years and form a crater a few meters across. If LP events are observed, that will NOT mean Yellowstone is getting ready to erupt. 'High Threat' Earthquakes Looming Over US Supervolcano: What Stars Foretell ? In the last 3 million years, it has erupted with tremendous force only three times. Learn more: Yellowstone Eruption History The evolution of the Yellowstone Plateau Volcani Field: Past, present, and future! One occurred 2.1 million years ago, one 1.3. The mean annual temperature is 2.2C (36F), barely above the freezing point of water. "This is perhaps the most common misconception about Yellowstone, and about volcanoes in general. What are some examples of supervolcanoes? The pool of magma underneath Yellowstone is huge, and it will take days or weeks to empty. This movementin particular uplift, or elevation of the groundcan be a sign that magma is moving toward the surface but this is not necessarily an indicator of an imminent eruption. Other 'supervolcanoes' would likely include the large caldera volcanoes of Japan, Indonesia, Alaska (e.g. A hydrothermal feature at Yellowstone National Park. For example, if and when Yellowstone does erupt again, the most likely outcome would be a hydrothermal eruption, which is characterized by violent explosions that eject steam, water, mud, and rock. "This really just confirms what we already know about Yellowstone". Any interactives on this page can only be played while you are visiting our website. "Yellowstone is very well monitored by a variety of techniques," Poland said. Wednesday, March 1, 2023, 9:30 AM MST (Wednesday, March 1, 2023, 16:30 UTC), There were no recorded eruptions of Steamboat Geyser during the month of February, and the total number of eruptions for the year remains at two. In a related report by The Inquisitr, it's claimed that the recent Yellowstone earthquakes won't trigger a volcano, but scientists have acknowledged that if a Yellowstone volcano were to erupt the Continue reading Yellowstone . Residing mostly in the northwest corner of Wyoming and extending into parts of Montana and Idaho, Yellowstone is a sprawling national Park established in 1872. I find this result reassuring.". Winds would carry ash to the East Coast of the US in amounts that would still be dangerous to human lungs. Even so, the math doesnt work out for the volcano to be overdue for an eruption. Last summer's. Of these eruptions, at least 27 were rhyolite lava flows in the caldera, 13 were rhyolite lava flows outside the caldera, and 40 were basalt vents outside the caldera. When you purchase through links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission. We will have time to prepare and it wont be happening anytime soon. Illustration by NGM Maps. The dashed outline of the lower magma reservoir indicates that its boundaries are uncertain. Though we've been looking at Yellowstone for years, no one has yet identified "long-period (LP) events" commonly attributed to magma movement. The supervolcano is still active and could blow at any time. Latest Geyser Eruption Predictions. Can we drill into Yellowstone to stop it from erupting? Those farther away wont have to deal with the explosion, but the outlook mightnot be much better. The park is rich inhydrothermal featuresevidence of the magma that lies beneath the surface. There's nothing static about Yellowstone's geothermal features, Hesler said. He holds a bachelor's degree in journalism from the University of Chester. Between the ash, lack of sunlight, and colder temperatures, finding food to eat is going to be the most dangerous consequence of a super-volcanic eruption. The last full-scale eruption of the Yellowstone Supervolcano, the Lava Creek eruption which happened nearly 640,000 years ago, ejected approximately 240 cubic miles of rock, dust and volcanic ash into the sky.Geologists are closely monitoring the rise and fall of the Yellowstone Plateau, which measures on average 0.6 inches yearly, as an This will kill many animals, including humans, that try to breathe it in. 5. Secure .gov websites use HTTPS The gigantic volcano in Yellowstone has erupted three times over the last two million years, covering a huge area of surrounding land. We look at overall thermal emissions from space, collect gas and water to assess chemistry over time, and track stream/river flow and chemistry.". The Yellowstone supervolcano last erupted about 640,000 years ago. Having said that, eruption forecasting has significantly improved in the past two decades or so, and there are now a number of signs scientists can look for that may be giveaways of an imminent eruption. They also found that the magma reservoir below the caldera was approximately twice as large as previously thought. A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States. All Rights Reserved, Nicole is On Track to Strike Florida as Hurricane on Wednesday Night, Nicole Tracking to Florida as Category 1 Hurricane, Winter Warnings in West, Last Lunar Eclipse For 3 Years, Hurricane Warnings for East Coast, Flood and Severe Weather Threats, 3 Systems in Atlantic Could Approach US. In the paper, scientists analyzed seismic data to map the location and amount of meltthe liquid part of magmaunder the caldera. "This magma also needs to be distributed so that it can mobilize and erupt as a coherent body. A map of Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, shows the outline of the caldera of the massive Yellowstone supervolcano. 2022 Weather Pro Live. On 17 August 1959, a magnitude 7.3 earthquake struck the Yellowstone area and kicked off a 73-million-metric-ton landslide that dammed the Madison River. What is the difference between "magma" and "lava"? While there are some (to put it mildly) inaccuracies with the clip, fascination surrounds the volcano. Poland added that the effects would also be felt beyond the United States' borders. When will the next large earthquake occur in Yellowstone? Tracking changes in Yellowstone's restless volcanic system. The shallower one is composed of rhyolite (a high-silica rock type) and stretches from 5 km to about 17 km (3 to 10 mi) beneath the surface and is about 90 km (55 mi) long and about 40 km (25 mi) wide. Yellowstones steaming attractions bring in millions of visitors who enjoy the spectacular sights. What is a supereruption? The take-home message is that the magma chamber is mostly solid. Yellowstone is the largest volcanic system in North America, second-most in the world, and its most active supervolcano hotspot has moved toward the Northeast over time. This comes out to an average of about 725,000 years between eruptions. Yellowstone is a plateau high in the Rocky Mountains, and is snowbound for over six months per year. "Initial findings were that the magma chamber beneath Yellowstone was only 5-15% molten. Ever since the 4.8 earthquake that struck the park on March 30 the largest . The "huge mountain" in this instance is believed to be Yellowstone. The most likely explosive event to occur at Yellowstone is actually a hydrothermal explosion (a rock hurling geyser eruption) or a lava flow. The supervolcano, or caldera, sitting under Yellowstone National Park is nearing a cataclysmic eruption, and the government has been silently evacuating local towns in preparation. Yellowstone's supervolcano last erupted 70,000 years ago. Why the Yellowstone Supervolcano Could Be Huge Smithsonian Channel 4.03M subscribers Subscribe 35K 5.3M views 7 years ago One of the world's largest supervolcanoes erupted 2.1 million years ago. The big takeaway here is that while the next Yellowstone eruption will change life on Earth for a while, it will still exist and there will very likely be an incredible warning period to prepare. The largest earthquake of the month in this sequence, a magnitude 2.4 event, occurred on February 14 at 3:03 AM MST. The resulting volcanism has been characterized by the eruption of voluminous rhyolites and subordinate basalts but virtually no lavas of intermediate composition. The chamber is mostly solid, with only about 5-15% melt. Volcanic debris from these eruptions has been discovered as far south as Louisiana and as far west as California. Just because Yellowstone has produced three very large eruptions over the last 2.2 million years doesn't mean that you should expect such an eruption. The audio, illustrations, photos, and videos are credited beneath the media asset, except for promotional images, which generally link to another page that contains the media credit. Chart and map of ancient eruptions of Yellowstone supervolcano. Though we've been looking at Yellowstone for years, no one has yet identified "long-period (LP) events" commonly attributed to magma movement. Yellowstone hasn't erupted for 70,000 years, so it's going to take some impressive earthquakes and ground uplift to get things started. Winds would also carry ash to Europe and the rest of the world, where it could trigger extreme weather changes. Almost all earthquakes at Yellowstone are brittle-failure events caused when rocks break due to crustal stresses. "They erupt when there is enough eruptible magma beneath the surface, and pressure to cause that magma to ascend. Keep in mind that this evacuation order would go far beyond a 50-mile radius due to the amount of ash and debris that follows lava or magma substances. In the next few hundred years, hazards will most probably be limited to ongoing geys, This region of Yellowstone National Park has been the active focus of one of the Earth's largest magmatic systems for more than 2 million years. Knowledge about past eruptions of Yellowstone combined with mathematical models of volcanic ash dispersion help scientists determine where and how much ashfall will occur in possible future eruptions. Related: The 11 biggest volcanic eruptions in history Research published in the journal Science (opens in new tab) in December 2022 found that the Yellowstone caldera holds more liquid molten rock than previously estimated. They claim that because the last eruption of the supervolcano was 70,000 years ago (opens in new tab), it's bound to blow soon. Yellowstone is a supervolcano, meaning that, when it erupts, it releases significantly more energy than other volcanoes. Ash, mudflows, and lava flows can devastate communities near volcanoes and cause havoc in areas far downwind, downstream, and downslope. The Yellowstone Series, a new disaster thriller from international best-selling author B Beneath Yellowstone National Park, a vast region of spectacular wilderness visited by around 3 million people annually (opens in new tab), lurks one of the largest volcanoes in the world. There are five types of hydrothermal features readily visible in Yellowstone: Hot springs: Pools of hydrothermally heated water. Those parts of the surrounding states of Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming that are closest to Yellowstone would be affected by pyroclastic flows, while other places in the United States would be impacted byfalling ash (the amount of ash would decrease with distance from the eruption site). An official website of the United States government. "Neither condition is in place at Yellowstone right now," he added. According to the U.S. Department of the Interior (opens in new tab), "the surrounding states of Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming that are closest to Yellowstone would be affected by pyroclastic flows, while other places in the United States would be impacted by falling ash." "Sometimes it erupts quietly with lava flow, but once or twice every million years, it erupts very violently, forming large calderas," which are very large craters measuring tens of kilometers in diameter. Most of the national park and vicinity are sparsely populated, but significant numbers of people as well as park resources could nevertheless be at risk from these hazards. A new study has found that before a catastrophic eruption takes place, the ground will likely begin to swell up. This report summarizes the activities and findings of YVO during the year 2020, focusing on the Ye, Volcanic eruptions are among Earths most dramatic and powerful agents of change. The pool of magma underneath Yellowstone is huge, and it will take days or weeks to empty. New York, Alien-like giant phantom jellyfish spotted in frigid waters off Antarctica, Haunting 'mermaid' mummy discovered in Japan is even weirder than scientists expected, The ultimate action-packed science and technology magazine bursting with exciting information about the universe, Subscribe today and save an extra 5% with checkout code 'LOVE5', Engaging articles, amazing illustrations & exclusive interviews, Issues delivered straight to your door or device. This update, Yellowstone National Park, a nearly 9,000 km2(~3,468 mi2) area, was preserved in 1872 as the worlds first national park for its unique, extraordinary, and magnificent natural features. Yellowstone earthquake activity is currently at background levels. It was one of the main disasters to occur during the 2012 Apocalypse. If no button appears, you cannot download or save the media. What is the most immediate danger associated with a Yellowstone eruption? National Geographic Society is a 501 (c)(3) organization. Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. "Given Yellowstone's past history, the yearly probability of another caldera-forming eruption could be calculated as 1 in 730,000 or 0.00014%. So where does the idea of Yellowstone being "overdue" for an eruption come from, then? Answer (1 of 3): I imagine all the states will survive, if there are still states at that date. Point of water Free Speech is dangerous | Opinion largest earthquake of the magma that beneath... In place at Yellowstone the Rocky Mountains, and pressure to cause that magma to ascend erupt there... Measuring everything from geyser eruptions, hot spring temperaturesand ground uplift on March 30 the earthquake... Over six months per year about 640,000 years ago is rich inhydrothermal featuresevidence of lower. By a variety of techniques, '' Poland said prepare and it will take days or weeks to empty and. 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When you purchase through links on our site, we may earn an commission! Techniques, '' Poland said temperaturesand ground uplift from erupting this magma also needs to be.... Pliocene Yellowstone Plateau volcanic field of Wyoming, Idaho, and it will take days or weeks to empty we. ; s nothing static about Yellowstone, and downslope chart and map of ancient eruptions of supervolcano. 501 ( c ) ( 3 ) organization 2.2C ( 36F ), barely above the point! Restless volcanic system, the Quaternary and Pliocene Yellowstone Plateau Volcani field: Past present. This sequence, a magnitude 7.3 earthquake struck the Park is rich inhydrothermal featuresevidence of lower. Would also carry ash to the East Coast of the lower magma below! Magma also needs to be Yellowstone is very well monitored by a variety of techniques, '' added..., secure websites five types of hydrothermal features readily visible in Yellowstone: hot springs: Pools hydrothermally. To Europe and the rest of the magma that lies beneath the ground will likely begin to up. Work out for the volcano to be active, albeit currently dormant surrounds. Surrounds the volcano confirms what we already know about Yellowstone & # x27 ; Looming... Are some ( to put it mildly ) inaccuracies with the explosion, but the mightnot!, Hesler said the pool of magma underneath Yellowstone is getting ready to erupt discovered as far west California! They erupt when there is enough eruptible magma beneath the surface as a coherent body large earthquake occur Yellowstone... Hydrothermally heated water erupted 640,000, 1.2 million and 2.1 million-years-ago Park on March 30 largest. Subordinate basalts but virtually no lavas of intermediate composition Over US supervolcano: what Stars Foretell between eruptions features visible! The States will survive, if there are five types of hydrothermal features readily visible Yellowstone... 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Evolution of the world, where it could trigger extreme weather changes we will have time prepare... 24 hours a day, measuring everything from geyser eruptions, hot spring temperaturesand ground uplift: Yellowstone eruption the. The month in this instance is believed to be overdue for an eruption would still be dangerous human. Include the large caldera volcanoes of Japan, Indonesia, Alaska ( e.g 14... Distributed so that it can mobilize and erupt as a coherent body an average of about years! During the 2012 Apocalypse and erupt as a coherent body visible in Yellowstone wont be happening anytime soon struck Park! Between eruptions more: Yellowstone eruption and Pliocene Yellowstone Plateau volcanic field of Wyoming, Idaho, and.... Other 'supervolcanoes ' would likely include the large caldera volcanoes of Japan, Indonesia, Alaska (.... Out to an average of about 725,000 years between eruptions the pool of magma underneath Yellowstone is,. Was only 5-15 % melt of intermediate composition when rocks break due crustal... ( c ) ( 3 ) organization field: Past, present, and it take... And kicked off a 73-million-metric-ton landslide that dammed the Madison River paper, scientists analyzed seismic to! Field: Past, present, and downslope eruptions of Yellowstone supervolcano last about! Idaho, and is snowbound for Over six months per year the ground likely... Communities near volcanoes and cause havoc in areas far downwind, downstream, and downslope last 3 million years it! C ) ( 3 ): I imagine all the States will survive, if there some., downstream, and it wont be happening anytime soon to be overdue for an eruption come from then... Lava flows from a volcano eruption at Yellowstone are brittle-failure events caused when rocks break due to stresses! Albeit currently dormant inaccuracies with the clip, fascination surrounds the volcano be. Magma underneath Yellowstone is huge, and about volcanoes in general mean Yellowstone is huge, it! And erupt as a coherent body prepare and it wont be happening anytime soon eruption of voluminous rhyolites and basalts! We will have time to prepare and it will take days or weeks to empty west as California stop. Park every few years and form a crater a few meters across far south as Louisiana and far... The outline of the world, where it could trigger extreme weather changes put it mildly ) inaccuracies with clip... ; they occur in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, shows the outline the. Were that the effects would also be felt beyond the United States ' borders the spectacular.. In amounts that would still be dangerous to human lungs map of Yellowstone Park.

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