While both teams have had well-documented injuries throughout the postseason, Bostons most important banged-up players Marcus Smart and Robert Williams seem like theyre in better shape than their Golden State equivalents Otto Porter Jr., Gary Payton II and Andre Iguodala.). will be almost everything for L.A. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard have been in and out of the lineup. Golden State Warriors (224) It remains to be seen how interim coach Joe Mazzulla will fare in Udokas stead, but all RAPTOR can account for here is the quality of Bostons roster, which was evident throughout last season and is even better now after the addition of Malcolm Brogdon. A six-game winning streak followed, and after a brief lull in January the Raptors then rattled off another eight straight wins into mid-February. If you were to bet $100 on the Warriors to win the 2022-23NBA championship and it hits, youd get $700 your $100 is returned and youd get $600 in profit. If he's healthy, Porzingis will certainly be motivated facing his old team. Even if you dont like or believe our default forecast based on RAPTOR player ratings (which, again, I dont necessarily blame you), the Celtics are also 68 percent favorites according to our classic Elo-based predictions. Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesn't account for wins and losses; it is based entirely. Much of the deadline drama focused on Western Conference teams adding key pieces and moving into the fray near the top of the odds board. Jrue Holiday (finally) was an All-Star again and Brook Lopez is aging like Benjamin Button. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 0.5% Most impactful moment during the season's first half: DeRozan hits back-to-back game-winners on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. 1' to Dubs beating Mavs. Forecast from How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Once youve made your decision on which team you think has the chops to win the 2022-23NBA championship, youre ready to go. Philadelphia 76ers (71) Most impactful moment during the season's first half: Beating the LA Clippers on Dec. 31. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%. The Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets have been given the best chance to make the Finals at 33 percent and 26 respectively, followed by the Memphis Grizzlies (17 percent), Dallas Mavericks (14. Deandre Ayton should eat off of those three perimeter threats, but well see how their bench holds up after losing so much depth to acquire Durant. He has played four games for his new team so far, but if he can help take some of the playmaking and scoring burden off of All-Star guard Darius Garland, Cleveland could have a chance to go from pleasant surprise to making noise in the postseason. There are a handful of famous exceptions, like Detroit adding the final piece it needed with Rasheed Wallace in 2004. The Suns and Jazz, routinely at the top of the standings the past few seasons, have each moved down for different reasons. UPDATED Jun. Donis closest comparables for this season include 2003 Tracy McGrady, 2009 LeBron James and 2002 Kobe Bryant, among others. Dont forget the Bucks won the title in 2020-21, when they started the season at +550 in NBA championship odds, and took the Celtics all the way to Game 7 in the 2021-22 Eastern Conference semifinals. Washington has won three of its past five but is still waiting for Kristaps Porzingis to make his Wizards debut since he was traded to the team on Feb. 10. Harrell has averaged 17.8 points and 7.5 rebounds on 65.1% shooting since being acquired at the deadline. Jalen Carters arrest warrant for reckless driving and racing, explained. In the likely event (to me, at least) that Mobleys projection ends up being too pessimistic, Clevelands odds will certainly improve. If Charlotte can defeat Atlanta, it would tie the season series and avoid the Hornets losing that tiebreaker for play-in seeding. The. The result is a Clippers team deep with effective role players that should be very dangerous in the Western Conference. They'll need a healthy Porzingis down the stretch. Thats why it foresees the Jazz as a play-in team despite their rather obvious intention to tumble in the standings. Ja Morants allegations of aggression off the court, explained. The U!). Originally, the model had him on a load-management plan that would limit his minutes within each game. Things can change fastso keep track of the latest NBA Futuresbefore you bet. ET, NBA TV): This game could be a preview of what's coming at some point in May. And if you ask for my opinion, yes, I think our forecast is too bullish on the Celtics. The Westbrook pickup is confusing, especially with the former MVP getting the opportunity to start and taking minutes from Gordon and Terance Mann. 8, 2018 at 11:36 PM 2017-18 NBA Predictions Caesars title odds: +650 They also have a gauntlet March schedule and have already lost two of three coming out of the break. When we last saw them Giannis Antetokounmpo was going back and forth with Philly's Embiid in the last game before the All-Star break. A blockbuster NBA Trade Deadline delivered a dump truck of showstopping news, dramatically realigning team rosters and superstar affiliations. ET): Led by Mobley and center Jarrett Allen, the Cavs' biggest strengths -- their defense and front court -- will be tested in each meeting with the Sixers and Embiid. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are simply not enough to carry a roster filled with negative players, some of whom are significant drags on the teams projection. Pivot point for the rest of the season: Count the Bucks among the teams hoping to get healthy before the postseason begins. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%. 4-seeded Mavericks during the conference finals. The Pelicans, Raptors, Hawks and Timberwolves are all priced between +3000 and +5000. Start with this eyebrow-raising fact: the FiveThirtyEight model has the Boston Celtics as the NBA championship favorites. Brooklyn Nets (+260) 2. The forecast foresees a changing of the guard at the top of the conference as well, with the Nuggets, Grizzlies and Mavericks projecting as the only teams with 50-plus wins. When we last saw them Miami was rolling going into the break. Now, its up to the Warriors to prove the less-favorable odds wrong. The All-Star break is over and it's time to look ahead to the stretch run of the NBA season. (Besides, Eastern Conference teams went 226-224 against the West anyway; the weak East is a thing of the past. As the losses piled up leading into the All-Star break, it became clear the All-Star guard wanted out -- which led to the deal that sent him to the 76ers and brought Simmons, Seth Curry, Andre Drummond and two first-round picks to Brooklyn. Preseason predicted standings for the NBAs 2022-23 Western Conference, according to FiveThirtyEights RAPTOR-based forecast. Phoenix which made the NBA Finals just two seasons ago without Durant has been the more popular betting target of the two. The big exception is the Nets, whose odds market imploded when the team spun off Durant and Irving. The number is much shorter now (+1400) but still long enough to warrant a value bet. Game metrics are on a 0-100 scale. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +340 Whether the Bulls will be able to get there before the end of the season will be crucial. Washington did try to address its chemistry issues and loosen the logjam of minutes and roles by trading away Harrell, Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans. Suddenly, the season has been infused with a massive burst of energy and excitement. The big exception is the Nets, whose odds market imploded when the team spun off Durant and Irving. Perhaps the most interesting move is the Atlanta Hawks, who have moved closer to the top of the table despite firing their coach this month. More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team, How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. And yet, with the Miami Heat currently in a blue state of mind, these next four weeks figure to go a long way toward determining whether it will be playoffs or play-in after the April 9 regular-season finale. Playoff and title projections: NBA.com is part of Warner Media, LLCs Turner Sports & Entertainment Digital Network, *Translations are limited to select pages. Phoenix still projects to have one of the NBAs best starting fives, but the bench appears a bit lacking right now even with the return of Dario ari. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: Julius Randle running down the floor during a Jan. 6 win over the Celtics with his thumb down in the direction of the Madison Square Garden faithful symbolized the Knicks' entire first half. February 22, 2023 6:00 AM . While the Warriors won two more games than the Celtics, that happened because Boston undershot its Pythagorean record by eight games making it the unluckiest team in the league by that measure. By Michael Salfino. ET, ESPN): Several members of the Bulls organization were furious at the flagrant foul from Grayson Allen that resulted in Alex Caruso's fractured wrist the last time these two teams met. Naturally, those acquisitions created a torrent of new betting action in Dallas and Phoenix, reshaping the balance of power in the West. If that trio is healthy and Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown keep playing at such a high level Boston still looks like the East favorite. While youre here, check out some of our other NBA betting sitesor unique basketball betting content like our popular first-quarter/first-half betting report or our analysis of which teams perform best on back-to-back days. And who knows whats going to happen with Gary Payton II, a key cog from last seasons team that was reacquired but is dealing with an adductor injury. Nate McMillan was dismissed in Atlanta on Feb. 21 and replaced by former Jazz coach Quin Snyder. This year, however, there are 11(!) It has been a rough ride for coach Tom Thibodeau's team this season. The Lakers conjured a three-team trade of their own that netted DAngelo Russell, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt for LeBron James and Co. Theres still quite a bit of work to be done, as the Lakers (29-32) are currently 12th in the West. FiveThirtyEight: Suns have a 56% chance to beat Hornets The site gives Charlotte a 44% shot at defeating Phoenix in the NBA game on Wednesday night. It should be a heck of a lot of fun to see how the East playoff picture shakes out. Were still early enough in the season for some solid value picks. Still, the Grizzlies are a deep squad. While many teams likely still think theyre in contention, eight teams are at +1600 or better to win the Larry OBrien trophy, according to DraftKings. Ahead of todays Game 1 of the NBA Finals, lets get one thing out of the way: Our forecast model loves, loves, loves the Boston Celtics. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: DeRozan hits back-to-back game-winners on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. The Kings have moved up 12 spots in the table since the beginning of the season and two from a month ago. Must-see game left on the schedule: Bucks at Bulls, March 4 (7:30 p.m. If it does, the Nets have a legitimate chance to contend for a title. *This post was completed before the conclusion of the Clippers and Warriors games went final Tuesday night. So something has to give between the two predictions. They won six of their past seven and had found a strong rhythm playing behind Jimmy Butler and a solid core of guys who play just like him. Was going back and forth with Philly 's Embiid in the season and two from a month ago,,! Beating the LA Clippers on Dec. 31 for different reasons it would tie the season, explained in! Which made the NBA championship favorites the Finals: < 0.1 %, Eastern Conference teams went against. Averaged 17.8 points and 7.5 rebounds on 65.1 % shooting since being acquired the... L.A. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard have been in and out of season! Spun off Durant and Irving a heck of a lot of fun to see How the East picture... 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